"Avatar" took home the top prizes at last week’s Golden Globe Awards. Whether it deserves it or not, expect James Cameron’s epic to lead the field again when Oscar nominations are announced Feb. 2. Here’s a highly educated guess (debatable) on what to expect in the top categories.
Best Picture
In a controversial rule change, the Academy will nominate 10 films in its top category. Five movies are all-but-guaranteed to be there: "Avatar," "The Hurt Locker," "Up in the Air," "Inglourious Basterds" and "Precious."
The rest could be tricky. Pixar should finally make the cut with "Up," and little seen "An Education" has scored in several key precursors. Clint Eastwood is an Academy favorite, so let’s assume "Invictus" makes it too. That leaves two more spots. "Star Trek" and "District 9" deserve to be there, but I say only "Trek" sneaks in.
That leaves "(500) Days of Summer," "The Messenger," "Where the Wild Things Are," "Crazy Heart," "Fantastic Mr. Fox," "A Serious Man" and "The Hangover" for the final slot. I’ll go with my personal favorite of the bunch: "(500) Days of Summer."
Update: 7/10 correct. Nobody saw “The Blind Side” coming. No “(500) Days of Summer.” Blasphemy!
Best Actor
Two locks: Jeff Bridges in "Crazy Heart" and George Clooney in "Up in the Air." The excellent Morgan Freeman will make it in for his portrayal of Nelson Mandela in "Invictus," and Colin Firth scored Globe and Screen Actors Guild nominations for "A Single Man." Final spot goes to Jeremy Renner of "The Hurt Locker," beating out Viggo Mortensen in "The Road" and Michael Stuhlbarg in "A Serious Man."
Update: 5/5 correct
Best Actress
Meryl Streep again. Can’t she take a year off? She’s in for "Julie & Julia." Sandra Bullock will give her a run for the money with "The Blind Side," and critical favorite Carey Mulligan is in for "An Education." "Precious" star Gabourey Sidibe is a pretty good bet, too. While Helen Mirren is the pick in the race, I’d prefer to see starlet Emily Blunt make it for "The Young Victoria." Really, the finally slot should go to Zoe Saldana in "Avatar," but don’t hold your breath for that one.
Update: 5/5 correct
Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz is already a heavy favorite to win this category for his brilliant turn in "Inglourious Basterds." The also-rans: Woody Harrelson in "The Messenger," Stanley Tucci in the reviled "Lovely Bones," Matt Damon in "Invictus" and Christopher Plummer in "The Last Station." Spoilers: Alec Baldwin in "It’s Complicated" or Christian McKay in "Me and Orson Welles."
Update: 5/5 correct (no spoilers here)
Best Supporting Actress
Like Christoph Waltz, "Precious" co-star Mo’Nique is already a heavy favorite to win. "Up in the Air" co-stars Anna Kendrick and Vera Farmiga will also be nominated. Penelope Cruz is an Oscar favorite, making this the only major category for the musical "Nine" to score a nod. Maggie Gyllenhaal should ride the insane Jeff Bridges buzz and sneak in for her role in "Crazy Heart." I’d like to see long shot Melanie Laurent for her excellent work in "Inglourious Basterds," but it’s unlikely she’ll be a spoiler.
Update: 5/5 correct (no spoilers)
Best Director
Go with the directors behind those five locks in the Best Picture race: James Cameron for "Avatar," Kathryn Bigelow for "The Hurt Locker," Jason Reitman for "Up in the Air," Quentin Tarantino for "Inglourious Basterds" and Lee Daniels for "Precious."
Update: 5/5 correct
Best Animated Feature
Ultimately, it will be a battle between "Up" and "Fantastic Mr. Fox." Third place will go to either "The Princess and the Frog," "Coraline" or "Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs."
Update: 4/5 correct (“Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs” was beaten by little known “The Secret of Kells.”
Best Original Screenplay
Sure bets: "Inglourious Basterds," "Up" and "The Hurt Locker." Then "(500) Days of Summer," and finally, "Avatar" over "A Serious Man." I’m not saying I agree with it, but it’s probably going to happen.
Update: 3/5 correct: “A Serious Man” actually beat out “Avatar” and “The Messenger” made it in.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Assumed contenders: "Up in the Air," "An Education," and "Precious." Here’s a good spot for some "Star Trek" and "Fantastic Mr. Fox" love, especially if they can’t make the Best Picture race. Potential spoilers: "A Serious Man," "District 9" and "Where the Wild Things Are."
Update: 3/5 correct: Happy to see “In the Loop” made it in, but “Fantastic Mr. Fox” was robbed.
Update: 42/50 correct = 84% Accuracy