Academy Award Predictions: Who will take home Oscars

Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin host the (something annual) Academy Awards at 5 p.m. Sunday on ABC. It should be a big test for the industry’s most celebrated award show. While some see the 10-nominee Best Picture race as detrimental to the Academy’s reputation as the authority on quality filmmaking, others believe the stuffed category will boost ratings for the fledgling ceremony telecast.

Those are discussions for other days. For now, let’s focus on the big night: Who will win, and perhaps more importantly, who should win. On with the predictions!

Best Picture
The most heated battle of the night comes down to mega-blockbuster “Avatar” and the low-budget war drama “The Hurt Locker.” The two films couldn’t be any more different. One is good, and the other is an overblown rip-off of “Pocahontas” with cool special effects.

Although “Avatar” won Best Picture at the Golden Globes (a.k.a. the pointless award ceremony), “Hurt  Locker” has dominated most of the other precursor awards, including the Director’s Guild and Producer’s Guild. Still, “Avatar” has a ton of support in the industry.

The wild card to watch will be “Inglourious Basterds.” Because of this year’s preferential balloting system (we are totally not getting into it here), “Basterds” may have more #2-4 votes than the far more divisive “Avatar.” “Basterds” seems to be respected in a lot of different circles, and the Screen Actor’s Guild awarded it its highest honor.

Prediction: “The Hurt Locker” squeaks it out.

Should Win: “The Hurt Locker.” Even though I ranked both “Up” and “Inglourious Basterds” higher on my personal Best of the Year list, I’d like to see the $12 million-grossing war movie beat that overrated monster known as “Avatar.” My personal ballot ranking: 1. “The Hurt Locker” 2. “Up” 3. “Inglourious Basterds” 4. “Up in the Air” 5. “District 9” 6. “An Education” 7. “A Serious Man” 8. “Precious” 9. “The Blind Side” 10. “Avatar”

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges should have no problem taking home the gold statue in this category for his stellar work as a worn-down country singer in “Crazy Heart.” He should have won an Oscar years ago. Should and Will Win: Bridges.

Best Actress
This category could be a tight race between Sandra Bullock in “The Blind Side” and Meryl Streep in “Julie & Julia.” The best performer in the bunch is Carey Mulligan of “An Education,” but she doesn’t have a shot in heck. Bullock seems to have the most momentum at the moment. Prediction: Bullock.

Best Supporting Actor
Easy one. Christoph Waltz of “Inglourious Basterds” had this award in the bag way back in August. Should and will win: Waltz.

Best Supporting Actress
Another easy one. Mo’Nique probably earned 90% of the vote for her unforgettable performance in “Precious.” Should and will win: Mo’Nique.

Best Director
Once again, this is a battle between “Hurt Locker” and “Avatar,” even though James Cameron himself admitted he’d rather see ex-wife Kathryn Bigelow win for her Iraq war drama. She’d be the first female Best Director Oscar winner, and it’s a good bet she makes the history books. Should and will win: Bigelow.

Best Original Screenplay
This could be close. A “Hurt Locker” sweep would mean screenwriter Mark Boal beats out some rather stiff competition. I say the Academy still wants to award Quentin Tarantino for his bold rewriting of history in “Inglourious Basterds.” Should and will win: That weirdo film geek, Tarantino.

Best Adapted Screenplay
In December, before “Avatar” broke records and people finally remembered “The Hurt Locker,” Jason Reitman’s “Up in the Air” had all the Oscar momentum. Now it will have to settle for a Screenplay win here. Should and will win: Reitman and Sheldon Turner, “Up in the Air”

Best Animated Feature
Considering Disney/Pixar’s “Up” made it into the Best Picture category, you would think it had enough support to win this category by a mile. Still, there’s a lot of love for “Fantastic Mr. Fox,” and some voters might be stupid enough to vote for “Up” in Best Picture and not here. Should and will win: “Up.”

Best Foreign Language Film
Voters never seem to go for the obvious choice here, so frontrunner “The White Ribbon” from Germany could get upstaged by one of the lesser-known selections. Don’t know which one, so I’ll pick the safe bet. Prediction: “White Ribbon.”

Best Documentary Feature
It probably comes down to “Food Inc.” and “The Cove,” two of my favorite movies from last year. I won’t mind either way, but dolphin exposé “The Cove” won more precursors on the awards circuit. Prediction: “The Cove.”

Best Editing
The movie that wins this category almost always wins Best Picture. Go Figure. Prediction: “Hurt Locker.” Should win: “Inglourious Basterds”

Best Cinematography
Unless voters don’t consider the digital artistry of “Avatar” to be true cinematography, the Oscar should go to the most gorgeous film in the bunch. Watch out for “Hurt Locker” or “The White Ribbon” as spoilers. Should and will win: “Avatar”

Best Art Direction
Should and will win: “Avatar.” Because it’s pretty.

Best Costume Design
Voters love big Victorian-era dresses, so “The Young Victoria” looks to be the winner here. “Coco Before Chanel” could be an alternate if you feel like being risky.

Best Sound Mixing
“Avatar” will probably squeak out a victory here over “Hurt Locker” and “Inglourious Basterds.” It wouldn’t be an unearned win.

Best Sound Editing
Ditto for this category. “Avatar” takes it home.

Best Original Score
The brilliant Michael Giacchino should win a long overdue Oscar for his eclectic work on Pixar’s “Up.” If James Horner’s repetitive work in “Avatar” wins, I’m going to murder one of those giant blue Smurfs with my own bare hands.

Best Original Song
Randy Newman’s “Princess and the Frog” songs will cancel each other out, leading the terrific “Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart” to an easy victory.

Best Visual Effects
“Avatar” in a landslide.

Best Makeup
Best Picture snub “Star Trek” should at least go home with something.

Best Animated Short
“A Matter of Loaf and Death” stars the great claymation creations Wallace & Gromit, who have already won three Oscars for previous films. Why bet against them now?

Best Live Action Short
No idea. Let’s go with the shortest title: “Kavi.”

Best Documentary Short
“The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant.” In a year celebrating populous fare like “Avatar,” it makes sense to award the movie that sounds like/is the movie of our troubled times.