2011 Oscar Nomination Predictions

“The Social Network” and “The King’s Speech” will ultimately duke out for the year’s top prize, but there are other nominations and categories to consider.

Here are my predictions, as well as a few long-shot picks that deserve more respect. Official predictions are in bold.

Best Picture
If there were only five nominees, it’d be easy: “The Social Network,” “The King’s Speech,” “The Fighter,” “Inception” and “Black Swan.” They’ve all appeared in pretty much every Oscar precursor (Guild nominations, critics’ lists, etc.). The other good bets: “Toy Story 3,” “True Grit,” and “The Kids Are All Right.” The final two slots will go to one of these three: “Winter’s Bone,” “127 Hours,” and “The Town.” Gut feeling: Ben Affleck’s excellent heist film just misses the cut.

Needs More Respect: Edgar Wright’s brilliant video game epic “Scott Pilgrim vs. the World.”Best Actor
Colin Firth won the Golden Globe last week, and pretty much every critics accolade so far this season for his terrific stuttering in “The King’s Speech.” Oscar co-host James Franco is probably the strongest also-ran for “127 Hours.” Last year’s winner, Jeff Bridges, will earn another nom for “True Grit.” Jesse Eisenberg’s rapid-fire performance in “The Social Network” should also be noticed. The final slot comes down to Robert Duvall in “Get Low,” Ryan Gosling in “Blue Valentine,” Mark Wahlberg in “The Fighter,” and Javier Bardem in “Biutiful.” Go with experience: Robert Duvall.

Best Actress
It will be a tight battle between Natalie Portman of “Black Swan” and Annette Bening of “The Kids Are All Right.” Jennifer Lawrence of “Winter’s Bone” will be in the hunt, as will Nicole Kidman of the little-seen “Rabbit-Hole.” The Screen Actors Guild chose Hilary Swank of “Conviction” for the final spot, so that’s the safest bet, but don’t be surprised to see Michelle Williams of “Blue Valentine,” Lesley Manville from “Another Year” or the other lead actress from “The Kids Are All Right,” Julianne Moore.

Needs More Respect: Noomi Rapace, the captivating star of the Swedish film version of “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” and its sequels.

Best Supporting Actor
This is Christian Bale’s race to lose for his stunning work as an addict in “The Fighter.” Geoffrey Rush is also a sure thing as the swear-word encouraging speech therapist in “The King’s Speech.” Sperm donor Mark Ruffalo also makes the cut for “The Kids Are All Right. Future “Spider-man” Andrew Garfield is also in for “The Social Network.” Slot five will be reserved for Jeremy Renner in “The Town,” a nominee last year for the Oscar-winning “The Hurt Locker.” Look out for Matt Damon in “True Grit” if the Academy goes crazy for the Coen Brothers Western.

Needs More Respect: John Hawkes, brilliantly creepy and the best thing about “Winter’s Bone.”

Best Supporting Actress
“The Fighter” ladies Melissa Leo (Golden Globe winner) and Amy Adams will lead the charge, followed by Helena Bonham Carter of the much adored “King’s Speech.” Young Hailee Steinfeld is the driving force of “True Grit” and probably should be in the lead actress race. Her campaign push, however, has been for supporting actress, so there you go. Mila Kunis is the odds-on favorite for the final slot for “Black Swan.” She has a SAG and Golden Globe nomination under her belt. That said, critical fave Jacki Weaver of “Animal Kingdom” shouldn’t be discarded.
Needs More Respect: Bryce Dallas Howard is a plucky standout in Clint Eastwood’s otherwise disappointing “Hereafter.”

Best Director
Back when the Academy only chose five movies for Best Picture, chances were the directors of those films were nominated in this category. Smart money rests with the movies that have earned the most year-end kudos: David Fincher of “The Social Network,” Christopher Nolan of “Inception,” Tom Hooper of “The King’s Speech,” Darren Aronofsky of “Black Swan,” and David O. Russell of “The Fighter.” The Academy, however, sure loves a good Coen Brothers movie, so I see “True Grit” jumping into the hunt.
Needs More Respect: Animation directors have a lot more responsibility than most people give credit. So why not celebrate Pixar’s latest masterpiece, “Toy Story 3,” by recognizing director Lee Unkrich?

Best Animated Feature
Only three slots. Two are easy: “Toy Story 3” and “How to Train Your Dragon.” Give the edge to “Despicable Me” over “The Illusionist” and Disney’s “Tangled”

Best Original Screenplay
Sure things: “The King’s Speech,” “Inception” and “The Kids Are All Right.” Strong overall support for “The Fighter” and “Black Swan” should push them into the hunt as well. Spoilers: “Another Year,” “Blue Valentine.”
Needs More Respect: The low-key and touching “Please Give” would have a real shot in a less competitive year.

Best Adapted Screenplay
This category doesn’t matter much beyond supreme frontrunner “The Social Network.” “True Grit” and “Winter’s Bone” should be present, and “Toy Story 3” will probably continue Pixar’s streak in the screenwriting categories. It’s another fight between “The Town” and “127 Hours” for the final spot. Poor Affleck never catches a break.